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WASHINGTON – Was it a fatal miscalculation for Evan Bayh to endorse Hillary Clinton five months ago? He quite obviously has been angling for a spot on the Clinton ticket. If she’s not the nominee, are his White House ambitions foiled yet again?
It would seem so.
But maybe not. There’s a case to be made that an Obama-Bayh ticket is at least vaguely in the realm of possibility.
To begin with, Bayh hasn’t committed any unpardonable political sins in his endorsement of Clinton or his conduct in the campaign so far.
In September, Bayh didn’t choose between two competitive candidates. He sided with the front runner in a field of eight candidates, seven of whom were long shots.
In fact, Barack Obama was dismissed as the charming political neophyte, not the clever rival he has become. Clinton was ahead in most national polls and had raised more money than the other Democratic contenders.
Had Bayh waited till Obama began winning primaries and astounding everyone with his fundraising, his endorsement would have been seen as equal amounts of pro-Clinton and anti-Obama. But declaring his fealty when Bayh did – and to a candidate with whom he had a long-standing political relationship if not friendship – is easily cast as both political pragmatism and a personal commitment.
Bayh has been Clinton’s surrogate in any number of situations, but he hasn’t bad-mouthed Obama.
In addition, Bayh has attributes Obama is likely to weigh heavily when choosing a running mate.
Among the questions Obama and his advisers probably will ask themselves are: Who enhances the Obama image of youth and charisma? Who might give the ticket an edge in a critical swing state or two? Who fills in the holes in Obama’s résumé? Who will do no harm?
The answers Bayh offers to these questions might not propel him to the top of the list, but they don’t disqualify him.
Obama will have to fill out the ticket with someone older because there is no other national political figure younger than Obama. But if his veep choice is too old, it will detract from Obama’s image as the agent for change. Bayh is 55 (Obama is 46) but comes off as boyish rather than middle-aged – young kids, no paunch, no gray.
Political pundits who have studied this business in far more depth than I say Bayh would help any Democratic ticket in Ohio, a key swing state. They say that because Bayh’s Senate and gubernatorial campaigns have aired ads in Hoosier TV markets that also reach Ohio voters, he is recognized there and liked.
I’m of the school that a vice presidential candidate can possibly influence the outcome in his or her own state (though that’s not so likely in red Indiana) but beyond that can only hurt – not help – the ticket.
But if Obama is of the first view – that a running mate could tweak the outcome in a state or region – Bayh scores as well as anyone else in this geography test.
Obama may think the areas he needs bolstering are the questions of experience, especially executive experience, and some military expertise.
Bayh was more than halfway through his first term as governor when Obama graduated from law school. Bayh ran Indiana government for eight years. In the Senate, he has served on the intelligence and armed services committees. That’s not the international experience of a Lee Hamilton or the military background of a Wes Clark, but it’s not nothing.
Bayh is often criticized as being risk-averse. However, that kind of personality trait is conducive to having no dark side. Is Bayh likely to have a scandal in his past? A tawdry relationship with a lobbyist? Probably not. In that regard he is well qualified to be anyone’s running mate.
There’s a final question Obama and his team will of course ponder: How important will race be in November?
Let’s say Obama is concerned that the country is ready to embrace the political equivalent of Tiger Woods but being paired with anyone more edgy – a woman, a Hispanic, a flamboyant liberal – would freak voters. Then the balance to the Democratic ticket would be a white, male, understated, Midwestern centrist. That’s Evan Bayh to a T.
So: Obama-Bayh? Not a slam dunk. But Hillary Clinton’s downward trajectory doesn’t necessarily doom Bayh’s chances to be in the Pennsylvania Avenue parade on Jan. 20, 2009.
