Subscribe
Jobs
Cars
Real Estate
Apts
Classifieds
Shop
WASHINGTON – If Evan Bayh is chosen to be Barack Obama’s running mate, he may owe it in part to another senator from Indiana. And I don’t mean Dick Lugar.
A successful Obama-Bayh ticket would mean Indiana’s governor would appoint someone to serve the remaining two years of Bayh’s Senate term. If GOP Mitch Daniels is re-elected, he’d replace Bayh with a Republican.
In a closely divided Senate, the party of the vacancy-filling decision maker really matters.
Readers of the political tea leaves anticipate that Democrats will pick up several Senate seats in November. But the indictment and likely defeat of Alaska’s Indianapolis-born Republican Sen. Ted Stevens gives the Democrats more cushion.
An untainted Stevens probably would have won re-election.
But Stevens has been accused of lying on his financial disclosure statements, a felony. Prosecutors say Stevens didn’t report that he took freebies from an oil pipeline and a construction company for upgrades to his home in Alaska. (Stevens says he didn’t neglect to report $250,000 worth of “things of value.”)
It’s safe to assume Stevens is toast. Almost certainly he will lose Alaska’s GOP primary later this month. Even if he worms through that, the Democratic candidate looks strong and will most likely win irrespective of whom the Republicans nominate.
So that’s one formerly safe Republican seat the Democrats are likely to claim in November.
If nothing else, a Democratic victory in Alaska would cancel out the loss of Bayh’s seat (if he’s picked as a running mate, if the Democratic ticket wins, and if Indiana’s governorship remains Republican).
I do not have any special insight into what factors Obama is considering as he looks at the landscape of possible running mates. But it would be a foolish presidential candidate who did not consider the ripple effect of any choice. Obama is not a fool.
So he is, quite naturally, aware that the selection of Bayh means the replacement of a Democrat in the Senate and that the choice may well be made by a Republican.
Obama, of course, would like a filibuster-proof Democratic-controlled Senate.
At the moment, the Senate has 48 Democrats, 48 Republicans and two independents who caucus with the Democrats. That gives the Democrats control … but just barely.
The rules of the Senate permit endless delay – a talkless filibuster by just one senator – unless 60 senators vote to block the blocker. Thus, a majority of less than 60 votes makes getting bills passed arduous work.
Even when almost everyone agrees on a particular bill, jumping through the procedural hoops to get to a vote chews up a ridiculous amount of time if just one senator wants to use the process in a tactical way. Thus, a 60-40 split in the Senate is any president’s dream.
If Obama is taking this into consideration as he ponders Bayh, he will think more broadly. After all, there are 35 other Senate seats to consider – the seats that will be filled in the fall election.
Of the 35, the odds are against Republicans for no other reason than the numbers. The GOP has to defend 23 seats; the Democrats currently hold 12.
Adding to the lopsidedness, of the 23 Republicans whose terms are up this year, seven are not running for re-election. (That could increase to eight if Stevens is beaten in the primary or is forced to resign.) Of the dozen D’s whose terms end, only one is not running for re-election.
Because it’s always easier for a party to hold onto a seat if the incumbent is running for re-election, the retirement decisions of the departing officeholders put the Republican Party in a weak position when it comes to the political makeup of the 100-member Senate next year.
Most non-partisan analysts are projecting the Democrats will add five to seven seats to the current 48. An additional seven seats would give the Democrats 57 (including the two independents). But that’s still not 60.
So we’re back to Obama and to what degree he tucks all this into his veep recipe.
My guess is that Obama and his consultants will discuss the Senate numbers as they ruminate about Bayh. But there are so many other ifs: If Democrat Jill Long Thompson wins the Hoosier gubernatorial race, a Democrat would replace Bayh, and his removal from the Senate would be a wash in terms of the size of the Democratic majority; if Obama wins in a landslide, his coattails could pull in more enough Democratic Senate contenders to reach the magic 60 even if Bayh is replaced by a Republican.
In truth, Stevens hasn’t been a Hoosier since he was a child. But it’s ironic that someone with roots in Indiana might play a slight role in Obama’s calculus as he weighs Bayh against the other potential running mates.
