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The national presidential campaigns packed up the day of Indiana’s primary, and conventional wisdom was Hoosiers would never hear from them again.
After all, Indiana is reliably Republican – voters haven’t chosen a Democrat for president since Lyndon B. Johnson in 1964.
But Democratic presumptive nominee Barack Obama is targeting Indiana as a red state that he hopes to turn blue, and today is making his second stop in the Hoosier state since May.
Add to that the rampant national and local speculation that the Illinois senator might use the trip to tap Indiana Sen. Evan Bayh as his running mate, and Indiana is the center of political intrigue.
“The idea that presidential candidates are in Elkhart is too much to wrap your head around,” said Robert Dion, longtime political science professor at the University of Evansville. “Indiana has always been such a sure thing. It’s the example I use in class – an example of a state you don’t need to spend time in for either party.”
But Obama assigned Emily Parcell, his political director in Iowa when he won that state’s caucus, to be his Indiana director.
And then he tapped Jonathan Swain – who previously was lent from Bayh’s office to aid Sen. Hillary Rodham Clinton’s bid – as his communications director in Indiana.
He also has opened up offices in at least 18 cities, including Fort Wayne, Evansville, Fishers, South Bend, Muncie and Bloomington.
Republican presumptive nominee Sen. John McCain has visited Indiana once since the primary but has not yet aired commercials here. Obama is on his third.
It’s unclear whether all the attention is a genuine effort to win or simply a way to force McCain to spend money in a state he usually wouldn’t.
“An old campaign strategy is to put the opponent on the defensive by raiding the other side’s territory,” Dion said. “Obama can cause McCain conniptions by having to cater to states that shouldn’t even be in play.”
Indiana Republican Party Chairman Murray Clark told reporters Tuesday that Hoosiers will see McCain in the state soon. But he also said he isn’t concerned about Indiana switching political allegiance.
“Indiana is largely a conservative state, and I don’t think Hoosiers were taken with (Obama’s) liberal rhetoric,” he said. “Sen. Obama apparently has made it a personal mission to win Indiana, but we are very comfortable that once again in Indiana the Republican nominee for president will prevail.”
This morning’s event at Concord High School in Elkhart is a town hall focused on Obama’s energy plan for America, Swain said. More than 60 media outlets from around the state plan to attend in addition to the national media that travel with Obama.
He’ll speak about his plan for immediate relief for Hoosiers struggling with high gas prices in addition to a long-term plan for alternative energy. He will also take questions.
Elkhart recently has been devastated by job losses in the RV manufacturing industry and their unemployment rate has risen to 7 percent in recent months – more than a percentage point higher than the state average.
Fueling conjecture about the town hall meeting is that Bayh will introduce Obama. Plus, the campaign won’t officially deny that a vice presidential announcement could occur, and many political pundits have suggested Obama would pick a running mate before the Olympics start Friday.
“Sen. Obama said a few weeks ago while in Indiana that he would talk about the timeline and his VP choice when he announces it,” Swain said.
But comments made by Bayh to the Indianapolis Star on Tuesday afternoon seemed to make it clear there would be no announcement today.
Bayh, 52, and Virginia Gov. Tim Kaine are rumored to be on the short list.
Bayh is considered a smart and safe choice by some politicos – a well-spoken former governor who also brings foreign policy experience to the table due to his work on the Senate Intelligence and Armed Services committees.
But Mike Wolf, a political science professor at IPFW, said it’s difficult to pick a running mate whose state is next door to Illinois, especially one who was vocal during the primary that Clinton was the better candidate.
“I wouldn’t bet on him being chosen,” he said. “You don’t want to choose someone who has to spend all their time to maybe win their own state.”
Dion thinks it’s more likely that Virginia would switch, bringing Obama 13 electoral votes to Indiana’s 11.
“With Bayh on the ticket, it gets a little more interesting, but I still think Indiana is a long shot.”
nkelly@jg.net
