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INDIANAPOLIS – When monthly jobs numbers hit in July, Democratic gubernatorial hopeful Jill Long Thompson reported Indiana had lost 17,900 jobs.
The number perplexed Gov. Mitch Daniels and his staff, whose own numbers indicated Indiana had made a small gain of 1,500 jobs from May to June.
Technically neither campaign was wrong.
Such is life on the campaign trail in a faltering economy. Both groups are quoting valid statistics, although they use different methods to gauge slightly different things.
Cam Savage, spokesman for the Daniels campaign, said the Republican governor consistently uses total non-farm employment, seasonally adjusted. This statistic is arrived at by surveying businesses with payrolls every month to see how many employees they have.
When the number goes down, it counts as a lost job. It does not include self-employed Hoosiers.
“I think that’s just the standard nationwide,” Savage said. “I don’t think there is any particular reason.”
Using this statistic, the state lost 16,500 jobs from July 2007 to July 2008. But the state has gained 27,800 jobs overall since Daniels took office in January 2005.
Jeff Harris, spokesman for the Long Thompson campaign, said it prefers to use statistics from the civilian labor force survey. This is a survey of people – not businesses – on their employment status.
“We think civilian labor force is more accurate because it’s a better reflection of Hoosiers’ ability to find employment,” Harris said.
Using this method, 29,063 fewer people were employed in July 2008 than July 2007. But overall, 29,660 more people are employed in the state since January 2005 when Daniels took over.
On top of all that, the Daniels administration often touts the number of jobs that have been “created” through the Indiana Economic Development Corp. These are actually job commitments that are often years away from occurring.
“We try to call the governor on that as much as possible,” Harris said. “He’s campaigning on promises of future jobs. Whether or not they ever happen is another story completely.”
Interestingly, the Indiana Democratic Party uses the same numbers as the Daniels campaign, not those coming from the Long Thompson campaign.
There is one number both sides seem to agree on – the unemployment rate. And it jumped to 6.3 percent in July, eclipsing the national average and the highest it has been in Indiana this decade.
“We’ve sustained some major hits,” Savage said. “The governor has never said there wouldn’t be challenges. We recognize there are national challenges in the economy, and the state can’t keep a failing business going. But what the state can very directly do is attract and try to grow Indiana companies and provide the best toolboxes to companies to come to Indiana.”
nkelly@jg.net
