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WASHINGTON – For Republicans, an election win of any size today would be a blessing. But victories in Virginia, New Jersey or elsewhere won’t erase enormous obstacles the party faces heading into a 2010 midterm election year when control of Congress and statehouses from coast to coast will be up for grabs.
It’s been a tough few years for the GOP. The party lost control of Congress in 2006 and then lost the White House in 2008 with three traditional Republican states – Indiana, North Carolina and Virginia – abandoning the party.
So even if political winds start blowing harder behind them and even if they can capitalize on Democratic missteps, Republicans still will have a long way to go over the next year because of their party’s own fundamental problems – divisions over the path forward, the lack of a national leader and a shrinking base in a changing nation.
The GOP would overcome none of those hurdles if Republican Bob McDonnell wins the Virginia governor’s race, Chris Christie emerges victorious in the New Jersey governor’s contest, or conservative Doug Hoffman triumphs in a hotly contested special congressional election in upstate New York.
In fact, 2009 seems to have underscored what may be the biggest impediment for Republicans – the war within their base.
Not that the GOP would casually brush off even a small stack of victories today.
One or more wins would give the Republicans a jolt, and a reason to rally in the coming months. Victories certainly would help with grass-roots fundraising and candidate recruiting. And they might just be enough to reinvigorate a party that controlled the White House and Congress through much of this decade, only to lose power in back-to-back national elections.
Viewed from the other side, a GOP sweep would be a setback for Democrats. It could be seen as a negative measure of President Obama’s standing and could signal trouble ahead as he seeks to get moderate Democratic lawmakers behind his legislative agenda and protect Democratic majorities in Congress next fall.
Here’s a look at today’s elections:
•New Jersey’s Jon Corzine is the only Democratic governor seeking re-election. Republicans have not won statewide in New Jersey in a dozen years, but polls show the race between Corzine and Republican Christie a tossup. Independent candidate Chris Daggett could influence the outcome.
»In Virginia, polls in the past week show Republican gubernatorial candidate McDonnell leading Democrat Creigh Deeds by between 11 and 18 percentage points in their contest to succeed Democratic Gov. Tim Kaine.
•Conservative Party candidate Hoffman and Democrat Bill Owens scrambled in the final hours Monday to win New York’s 23rd Congressional District, which stretches from eastern Lake Ontario up and over to the Canadian and Vermont borders and has become a national battleground for the identity of the Republican Party.
What started as a three-way race with Hoffman initially playing the role of spoiler turned into a frantic duel when Republican Dierdre Scozzafava abruptly dropped out over the weekend and backed Owens. Scozzafava was sharply criticized in the strongly Republican district for some views, including her support of abortion rights and same-sex marriage, that some conservatives balked at.
•Maine voters will decide whether to repeal a law that would allow gay marriage. The contest is considered too close to call.
