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WASHINGTON – What we learned from the off-year elections: The president’s influence is limited, independents rule, incumbents beware, issues trump ideology and, once more, “It’s the economy, stupid.”
Also: Republicans can win – even if they lack a leader and their base is cracked. And this certainly isn’t the Democratic-friendly political environment of 2006 and 2008 when the party captured control of Congress and the White House.
The first Election Day of Barack Obama’s presidency was a big night for Republicans, who recaptured governorships in the swing state of Virginia and the Democratic stronghold of New Jersey. Democrats won two races for vacant congressional seats, including one in upstate New York that had been long held by Republicans and that exposed a GOP divide.
So, what did we learn about politics, people and their priorities from the handful of races Tuesday? And how will those lessons shape the maneuvering of Republicans and Democrats ahead of 2010 midterms, when Obama’s prestige will be put to the test across the country?
The results don’t seem to bode well for Obama and his party heading into a high-stakes year as they look to advance an expensive domestic agenda while protecting the Democrats’ grip on House, Senate and gubernatorial seats nationwide. They’ll try to win over people in a country clouded by a job-killing recession, divided over war and, as Tuesday’s results showed, fed up with the powers that be – no matter the political party.
Obama’s political power is limited. The broad coalition – minorities, young people, first-time voters, Republican crossovers and independents – that fueled Obama’s victory was a 2008 phenomenon; it can’t be counted on if the man himself is not on the ballot.
Candidates carried into office in the Obama wave will be vulnerable in 2010 – with no lifeguard to help. And that could influence how those lawmakers vote in Congress in the meantime – perhaps threatening the president’s priorities.
Independents are kingmakers. Voters who don’t claim a political party again proved their value by propelling Republicans to victory in Virginia and New Jersey one year after carrying Obama to the White House.
Independents are extraordinarily fickle. Last year, hope and change tilted them toward Democrats. This year, anger and frustration tilted them to Republicans. Issues, including jobs, taxes and government spending, drive this center of the electorate, so candidates who talk about what independents care most about will win the middle and, thus, elections.
Incumbents beware. This means you, Mr. President, as well as Democrats who control Congress and even Republicans in certain seats.
In the midst of recession, people vented their frustrations by ousting Democrats from power in New Jersey and Virginia. And Democrat Bill Owens won a House seat held for decades by Republicans in a special election in upstate New York.
Also, in New York City, independent Mayor Michael Bloomberg barely won a third term against a little-known, poorly funded Democratic challenger. Voters resented his aggressive effort to get the city’s term limits law lifted and his spending as much as $100 million of his own money to stay in power.
Issues trump ideology; the economy trumps all. Voters have spoken: Issues like God, guns and gays take a back seat in a recession.
In Virginia, McDonnell proved that a socially conservative Republican can win in a Democratic-trending state if the focus is on pocketbook issues. Deeds went after McDonnell over conservative positions on so-called “values issues” but the Republican didn’t take the bait.
In New Jersey, Christie – a moderate Republican – found success by sticking to core local issues, taxes and jobs. Both winners de-emphasized social issues in favor of solutions for problems people were facing in their own backyards, jobs, transportation and taxes among them.
