The Obama administration's maneuvers on Sunday and Monday mean that General Motors Corp. probably will declare bankruptcy in two months, an industry analyst said Monday.

Even without bankruptcy, GM likely will have to cut even more deeply than the 14 plant closures and 21,000 job cuts it announced in December. But those cuts are unlikely to close GM's Allen County assembly plant, said Sean McAlinden, executive vice president for research and chief economist at the Center for Automotive Research in Ann Arbor, Mich.

McAlinden and his organization have been advising President Obama's Automotive Task Force.

In fact, McAlinden, said, there are rumblings that the Allen County assembly plant might even expand its product line in coming years.

Meanwhile, a local union official expressed cautious support for the Obama plan.

In 48 hours, Obama waded deeply into the auto industry.

First there was Sunday's news that he'd asked GM Chairman and CEO Rick Wagoner to resign and that most of the corporate board likely would get the boot as well. Then, on Monday, Obama gave GM 60 days to restructure its debts and cut costs to avoid bankruptcy court. He gave Chrysler LLC two months to merge with Fiat SpA or face dissolution.

In December, the federal government lent GM and Chrysler $17.4 billion after the automakers claimed they were on the verge of going broke. The two were due to submit viability plans Tuesday in order to receive up to $21.6 billion in additional taxpayer loans.

Leaders of the car companies have said they couldn't survive bankruptcy because nobody wants to buy a car or a truck if they don't think the manufacturer is going to be around to honor warrantees and provide parts and service.

But Obama said Monday that in a GM bankruptcy the federal government would provide financing while the company restructures, and it would guarantee GM's commitments to its customers.

"The administration was pretty serious today," McAlinden said of GM. "We're probably going to go to bankruptcy court in 60 days."

GM, its bondholders and the United Autoworkers are mired in a three-way standoff that a bankruptcy judge could quickly solve, McAlinden said.

The company is trying to get its bondholders to accept 4 cents in cash, 16 cents in unsecured debt, and 80 cents worth of stock for each $1 worth of bonds they own. GM also is asking the UAW to accept stock for half of the $20 billion the company owns the union for retiree health benefits.

Bondholders and union members worry that GM stock could decline in value or even become worthless.

UAW President Ron Gettelfinger has accepted the deal in principal, but he can't get the rank and file to ratify it unless the bondholders also make a sacrifice - something they've proven unwilling to do so far, McAlinden said.

"I think the bondholders are the bigger problem," McAlinden said, explaining that many invested expecting a government bailout. "They're real vulture investors."

A bankruptcy judge could simply wipe out the bondholders, a prospect that increases the pressure on them to make a deal with GM, McAlinden said.

Accepting billions in stock in a shaky company to fund a program for retiree health benefits is unsettling, said Orval Plumlee, president of United Auto Workers Local 2209, which represents the 2,500 hourly workers at GM's Allen County assembly plant.

"It's a frightening thought," Plumlee said Monday.

He also said the ousters of Wagoner and much of the GM board are unfair.

"I don't think these people did a bad job," Plumlee said. "I think they're sacrificial lambs to this economy we're living in."

However, Plumlee still gives Obama high marks.

"There's never been a president who has addressed an industry as seriously as he has," Plumlee said.

Despite uncertainties throughout GM, the Allen County plant likely won't close as long as the company makes trucks, McAlinden said.

"We don't think it will," he said. "It's been the outstanding truck plant in North America."

McAlinden said GM won't confirm it, but he's heard the company is interested in making additional versions of the Chevrolet Silverado and GMC Sierra pickup trucks.

GM also has a foundry in Defiance, Ohio, that employs 1,500. McAlinden didn't address its future, but it's the only GM cast-iron foundry in the United States.

UAW Local 211 President Dwight Chatham, who represents workers at the foundry, couldn't be reached Monday.

mschladen@jg.net