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State restarts budget process

Revenue forecast is 1st step leading to special session

– The State Budget Committee on Tuesday ordered an adjusted revenue forecast to use as the starting point for budget negotiations in a special legislative session tentatively scheduled for mid-June.

A bipartisan technical forecasting committee will present that data at a hearing May 26, and Gov. Mitch Daniels will put together a full budget proposal based on those numbers.

Lawmakers failed in the recent legislative session to pass a new two-year state budget. The current budget runs out June 30.

Daniels believes the current revenue forecast is too optimistic and that, based on losses in April, legislators need to cut up to $1 billion from the last budget proposal crafted in the waning hours of the session April 29.

Tuesday’s meeting was punctuated by a few sharp exchanges between Senate Appropriations Committee Chairman Luke Kenley, R-Noblesville, and State Budget Director Chris Ruhl.

Kenley interrupted a presentation on recent revenue data by Ruhl, saying “it’s kind of past history” and “I’m not sure if this is helping or hurting.”

He also said it was important that everyone – including leaders from all four legislative caucuses and the executive branch – agree that the new revenue forecast will be the baseline for crafting the next budget.

“We all need to be prepared to go forward with that report,” Kenley said.

Ruhl seemed to agree, although he stressed that the forecast committee needs to look at its formulas and methods to see why its estimates have been off in recent months and be prepared to make changes.

“The unwillingness to evolve in times we’ve never seen feels like a recipe for disaster,” Ruhl said.

The technical forecasting committee consists of legislative fiscal analysts and a representative from the State Budget Agency.

Also Tuesday, the budget committee added two outside fiscal experts to the panel for advisory assistance.

After the new forecast is presented, Daniels is expected to submit a budget proposal to a special subcommittee of the budget panel June 1.

Then that subcommittee – with members from all four legislative caucuses – will conduct hearings and negotiate on a budget from June 1 through June 15.

Legislative leaders recommended that Daniels then call lawmakers back for a special session June 15 to finalize the budget.

nkelly@jg.net