WASHINGTON – In addition to ending insurance denial for pre-existing conditions and creating a requirement that everyone buy a health insurance policy, did the legislation President Obama signed into law last week guarantee pink slips for three Hoosier Democratic congressmen come November?

Republicans are banking on it.

They think the “yes” votes from Reps. Brad Ellsworth, Joe Donnelly and Baron Hill will destroy their chances for re-election or, in Ellsworth’s case, election to the Senate.

I don’t think it cooks their goose. But that doesn’t mean Donnelly and Hill will coast to re-election and that Ellsworth will succeed Sen. Evan Bayh. If they lose, it will be for broader reasons than the health insurance legislation.

In general, the insurance legislation was supported by Democrats, opposed by Republicans. Republicans didn’t elect Donnelly, Ellsworth and Hill, so losing GOP support is losing something they never had.

It is independents who, in Indiana, determine the outcome of elections in many congressional districts. Independents were mixed-to-negative on the health insurance bill. But will their attitudes shift to all negative by the fall?

I think not. For most Americans, the effects of the health insurance law will be negligible, either for the good or the painful, and it won’t be much on their minds as they head out to vote.

Most people have employer-provided insurance, and few people expect that they’ll be kicked off the plan. We’re a pretty optimistic country, after all. Most people won’t see any additional out-of-pocket expenses.

Some truly believe the government-takeover/socialism/unconstitutionality argument. It’s highly unlikely any of them voted for those three Democrats in the past. Thus, Ellsworth, Donnelly and Hill won’t lose many former supporters over their health insurance votes.

For many, many voters, the hoopla over this bill will be forgotten. What will be on their minds and shaping their votes is what it always is in shaky economic times: their pocketbooks and their jobs.

It’s in troubled economic times that the ethical lapses of a few officials becomes “the culture of Washington.” It’s when someone with experience in a complicated business becomes “a career politician.”

It’s when “throw the bums out” sounds like something a frustrated jobless or underemployed person can do.

If that’s the mood in November, Democrats will pay more heavily than Republicans for one reason: There are more of them in Congress. If 20 percent of all the incumbents were defeated because people want to punish Washington, House Democrats would lose 50 seats; the GOP would lose 35.

At this point, the South Bend-area district is considered likely to re-elect Donnelly. He does not have a primary opponent, so he will not have to use any of his significant ($751,000 as of Jan. 1) campaign account in the May race.

Hill’s southeastern Indiana district is considered a “lean Democratic.” Hill has several primary opponents, but none is likely to force him to use resources ($729,000) that he doesn’t want to.

Republicans, however, have a primary dilemma on their hands in Hill’s district. Todd Young is in the strongest financial position ($265,000) of the four contenders. But former Rep. Mike Sodrel (whom Hill has defeated several times) is on the ballot, too. His former House colleagues are trying to bolster Sodrel’s campaign finances ($1,755 as of Jan. 1), but Sodrel and Young will need to spend a bunch of money fighting each other while Hill husbands his campaign account.

The fury in some quarters over the health insurance law can hurt Donnelly and Hill in a significant way: By motivating Republicans to donate to the GOP candidates. And, unlikely though it is, if their intensity mounts over the summer and fall, it could affect the number of people who vote.

Midterm elections are notoriously poorly attended by voters. In last year’s presidential election, 83,000 more people voted in the South Bend-area congressional race than voted two years earlier, another midterm election. In southeastern Indiana, 93,000 more people voted in 2008 than in 2006.

For Ellsworth, much will depend on the candidate Republicans choose as their Senate nominee. An anti-incumbent sentiment can just as easily cool voters toward Dan Coats (18 years in Congress) and John Hostettler (12 years) as Ellsworth (four years).

In addition to the generally sour (i.e., anti-incumbent) mood of voters, Ellsworth is hampered by his inexperience as a statewide candidate and being a cipher to most of the state.

But all three Democrats have one thing in common: If Hoosiers are grumpy on Nov. 2, Republicans and independents will be motivated to vote, and Democrats will sit this one out. If that happens in large numbers, any or all of those seats will be occupied by a Republican in 2011.