Though 16 candidates are seeking the Republican nomination for Congress before a precinct caucus Saturday, only a third of them have a reasonable chance of winning.

And the nomination battle will quite likely come down to two candidates: state Rep. Randy Borror and state Sen. Marlin Stutzman.

Those with a possible shot at the nomination – and a chance to survive the early rounds of voting – include two other elected officials: state Rep. Wes Culver of Goshen and City Councilwoman Liz Brown. The only non-elected candidate with a chance to emerge from the rest of the field is probably Ryan Elijah, the TV newsman/celebrity.

The other celebrity candidate, the car dealer Bob Thomas, finished second to Mark Souder in the primary but probably won’t go far in the caucus.

16 minus 1?

The third-place primary finisher, Phil Troyer, has scheduled a news conference for early this morning. And talk in GOP circles was that he will announce he is leaving the race to seek another position: state Rep. Matt Bell’s seat. Bell, also a Republican, announced he is taking a job with the newly formed Northeast Chamber (previously the Corporate Council). Troyer will have to win a GOP caucus to replace Bell on the November ballot, then win the general election (if Democrats field a candidate).

Though he has little chance of emerging from the congressional caucus, Troyer has a decent chance to win the party’s nod for the state representative seat.

Shine on

State Republican Chairman Murray Clark will oversee Saturday’s caucus, but Allen County GOP Chairman Steve Shine will still have a role: as a precinct committeeman. In fact, three generations of Shines will be voting. Shine’s mother, Frances, and daughter, Madeline, are also precinct committee officials.

The list of committeemen includes a number of other familiar names, including: Allen County Prosecutor Karen Richards, Chief Deputy Prosecutor Michael McAlexander and another deputy prosecutor, Adam Mildred; Homeland Safety Director Bernie Beier; County Council members Paula Hughes, Darren Vogt, Roy Buskirk and Robert Armstrong; Jon Olinger, a former Fort Wayne Community Schools board member; City Councilman Mitch Harper; Richard Freeland and Ken Neumeister, frequent campaign contributors; former mayoral candidate Linda Buskirk; state Rep. Phyllis Pond; Lisa Blosser, county auditor, and Tera Klutz, chief deputy auditor; Therese Brown, county clerk and Renee Rousseau, her chief deputy; Al Frisinger, county surveyor; Sue Orth, county treasurer; John McGauley, county recorder; and County Commissioners Nelson Peters and Linda Bloom, plus former County Commissioner Marla Irving.

Lobbyist Coats

Four months after pledging to unveil his list of lobbying clients, Dan Coats put up an 815-page report on his website with the details: www.coatsforindiana.com/facts.

Democrats question whether the list really includes all his clients, particularly Bank of America, listed as a Coats client by his previous employer. This is an issue that is not going away before Nov. 2.