WASHINGTON – The U.S. economic recovery will remain slow deep into next year, held back by shoppers reluctant to spend and employers hesitant to hire, according to an Associated Press survey of leading economists.

The latest quarterly AP Economy Survey shows economists have turned gloomier in the past three months. They foresee weaker growth and higher unemployment than they did before. As a result, the economists think the Federal Reserve will keep interest rates near zero until at least next spring.

Yet despite their expectation of slower growth, a majority of the 42 economists surveyed believe the recovery remains on track, raising hopes that the economy can avoid falling back into a “double-dip” recession.

The AP survey compiles forecasts of leading private, corporate and academic economists on a range of indicators, including employment, consumer spending and inflation. Among their forecasts:

•Economic growth the rest of this year and early next year will weaken, to less than 3 percent. From January through May, the economy grew at roughly a 3.5 percent pace.

•The unemployment rate will be no lower at the end of the year than it is now – 9.5 percent. A majority think it will be 2015 or later before the rate falls to a historically normal 5 percent.

•State budget shortfalls pose a “significant” or “severe” risk to the national economy. The loss of tax revenue has forced state and local governments to cut services and lay off workers.

The weak economy leaves Democrats and Republicans on Capitol Hill vulnerable as they head into the November midterm elections. Democrats, who now control both chambers, have the most to lose. The gloomier outlook is also a liability for President Obama.

The economists have turned more pessimistic since the recovery hit turbulence in May. Europe’s debt crisis sent tremors through Wall Street, causing stocks to tumble and raising doubts about the durability of the rebound.

Since then, businesses have been slow to step up hiring.