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Customers join the waiting list for Volkswagen’s new Polo. Auto analysts predict Russia will be Europe’s most significant growth market.

Sales up 13 percent in Russia this year

– A showroom selling Volkswagen cars here is buzzing with activity as a couple checks out the Tiguan sport-utility vehicle and a sales associate takes calls from potential buyers.

The dealership, one of five around Russia’s second-largest city owned by closely held company Wagner, has seen first-half sales surge 40 percent, with some buyers waiting six months for popular models such as VW’s Skoda Fabia, managing director Mikhail Podushko said.

“We are like a barometer of what’s happening in the local market,” Podushko said. “Last August, our sales hit rock bottom, and this year we have already met our 2010 sales target for some models.“

VW, Ford and Toyota are increasing output in Russia and rolling out new models, which they displayed at the Moscow car show in late August. Russian sales will advance 13 percent in 2010 to 1.7 million vehicles, executives from the three companies said, while deliveries in the rest of Europe are little changed.

Ford showcased the new Mondeo and four-door Focus. Toyota premiered the Highlander SUV and the Hilux pickup. VW is displayed a new sedan model built specifically for the Russian market and based on the Polo small car.

“Our view of Russia is that it will certainly be the most significant growth market in Europe, and a very significant growth market globally,” Mark Ovenden, Ford’s Russia chief, said from Moscow.

“Provided the oil price stays strong and the economy continues to improve, we can see the Russian industry driving up toward 2 million units next year.”

Russian car deliveries increased 9 percent in the first seven months of the year and jumped 48 percent in July. According to the Moscow-based Association of European Businesses, the jump was spurred by the economic recovery and the government’s cash-for-clunkers program.

First-half sales in the rest of Europe, the most recent figures available, rose 0.6 percent.

Russia’s economy will grow 4 percent in 2010, after last year’s contraction of 7.9 percent, the economy ministry forecasts.

The improving outlook has spurred a growing number of Russians to say conditions are favorable for making purchases, according to the Federal Statistics Service’s most recent survey of consumer confidence.

Irina Makeeva is one of them. Three months ago, Makeeva, a self-described “Citroen addict,” extended her car loan to upgrade her 2006 Citroen C4 from French carmaker PSA Peugeot Citroen for a newer model with an automatic transmission.

“Things were looking up at work, so it felt like the right time to upgrade,” said Makeeva, 32, a telecom company employee in St. Petersburg.

Demand for luxury vehicles is even higher. Russia’s top three luxury-auto sellers posted seven- month deliveries that outstripped volume brands’ gains, according to the Association of European Businesses.