WASHINGTON – If Democrats in the House or Senate lose their majority control after the Nov. 2 elections, Hoosier voters will have contributed to the switch.

“Indiana is a critical state for Republicans at the House and Senate level,” said Nathan Gonzales, political editor of the non-partisan Rothenberg Political Report, which analyzes congressional elections.

The 77-seat Democratic majority in the House appears increasingly vulnerable to voter dissatisfaction with Democrats in charge of Washington, election handicappers say. They also say it wouldn’t be a shock if Republicans win enough of the 34 contested Senate seats to switch the majority.

To win enough of the Senate races to overcome the Democrats’ 10-seat Senate majority, Gonzales said, Republicans “have to run the table. There’s no room for error in the Senate races for Republicans.”

That means winning in Indiana. Of the state’s 11 congressional seats, six are held by Democrats. All but the seat held by Sen. Richard Lugar, R-Ind., are on the ballot this year, meaning the two parties are fighting over 10 slots.

Handicappers say Democrats will almost surely hold on to just two of them. Three are considered safe GOP seats. Five are question marks or lean Republican.

The decision by Sen. Evan Bayh, D-Ind., to retire after 12 years in office created an open seat that now favors Republican Dan Coats over Democrat Brad Ellsworth, according to Gonzales and Charlie Cook, publisher of the non-partisan Cook Political Report.

Cook labels Indiana’s Senate race “lean Republican” and says the state is one of several that’s likely to elect a Republican to replace a Democrat. “For much of this year, it seemed a near mathematical impossibility that Republicans could score the 10-seat net gain needed to flip the Senate, which is split between 59 Democrats (including two independents who caucus with Democrats and largely vote with the party) and 41 Republicans,” Cook wrote in an assessment of the Senate elections.

Now, he said, “the possibility of a GOP takeover is growing.” Those circumstances favor Coats.

“Coats is a Republican in a conservative state,” Gonzales said. “Ellsworth looks good on paper, but he only represents a very small portion of the state (as a House member). He’s not well known outside the Evansville media market. People who don’t know him think of him as a Democrat, and that’s not good for him.”

GOP not a lock

Recent polls suggest voters are sour on Democrats. A Washington Post-ABC News poll released this week found voters generally think Republicans would do a better job coping with the big national problems – especially the economy – than Democrats.

That does not bode well for several Indiana Democratic candidates, Gonzales said.

Northeast Indiana’s congressional seat, which Rep. Mark Souder, R-3rd, gave up when he resigned in May, “could have been competitive in a different political environment,” Gonzales said.

Even though Democrat Tom Hayhurst has more money and is better known than Republican Marlin Stutzman, the 2010 climate doesn’t favor Hayhurst, Gonzales said.

In part that’s because so many incumbent House Democrats throughout the country are in tough re-election campaigns. As a result, money that might have been spread to candidates like Hayhurst will be used instead on re-election campaigns.

But the chance of Republicans winning a majority in the House is not a lock, Gonzales said.

Of the Hoosier House seats now held by Democrats, Republicans need to win three – not just one – and repeat that pattern in other states, he said.

Democrats reject the notion that their party’s House majority could evaporate.

“We have been preparing from day one for what we knew would be a very tough campaign season,” Rep. Chris Van Hollen, D-Md., chairman of the Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee, said at a news conference late last month “I am confident that Democrats will retain control of the House.”

Nonetheless, although there are three open House seats in Indiana – elections where an incumbent is not on the ballot – the DCCC has identified just one of them to highlight.

“These candidates earned a spot in the program by surpassing demanding fundraising goals and skillfully demonstrating to voters that they will work to create jobs and stand up for the middle class,” the DCCC says of 26 candidates, including Trent Van Haaften, who is running to replace Ellsworth in the Evansville-area House district.

Hayhurst, who had a $230,000 advantage over Stutzman at the end of June, is not on the list. In 2008, there were 56 candidates on the DCCC’s list of challengers or open-seat contenders the organization tried to help. This year, there are 26.

3 seats targeted

Just two of Indiana’s five Democratic House seats are considered shoo-ins – Reps. Pete Visclosky, who represents the Gary area, and Andre Carson of Indianapolis.

Cook and Stu Rothenberg, publisher of the Rothenberg Political Report, think Rep. Joe Donnelly, D-2nd, will probably win re-election, but Republicans are throwing considerable support to his opponent, Jackie Walorski.

The National Republican Congressional Committee’s first TV ad of the season was directed at Donnelly and portrays him as a pawn of Democratic leaders.

In addition to Walorski, the NRCC has selected two other Hoosier candidates running against a Democratic incumbent or in an open seat to highlight: Todd Young, running against Rep. Baron Hill, D-9th, and Larry Bucshon in the Evansville-area open seat.

Cook and Rothenberg think the Hill-Young race is a toss-up and that the Bucshon-Van Haaften race leans Republican.

They agree that the two incumbent Republicans on the ballot – Reps. Mike Pence, R-6th, and Dan Burton, R-5th – will safely win re-election and that retiring Rep. Steve Buyer, R-4th, will be replaced by a Republican.

It’s true that the Obama- Biden presidential ticket won Indiana in 2008, Gonzales said, but that victory ran counter to the state’s natural voting inclination.

“Now that the economic and national political environment has turned against Democrats, I think we’re going to see a snapback for Republicans in Indiana,” he said. “It’s just a terrible time to be running as a Democrat.”

sylviasmith@jg.net