FORT WAYNE – Facing a popular and well-known incumbent has not deterred area Republicans from a fight.
Three serious Republican campaigns are being waged for mayor this year, and pundits and supporters agree that each candidate has a legitimate shot at victory.
Paula Hughes, Liz Brown and Eric Doden all bring their own strengths and challenges to the campaign, and each will have to find niches of voters in the small turnout common in this race.
Winning the nomination will be more about hard work and smart targeting than broad statements or platform announcements, according to candidate supporters and political experts.
“They each have enough of a résumé to consider themselves a legitimate candidate,” Andy Downs said of Hughes, Brown and Doden. Downs is director of the Mike Downs Center for Indiana Politics at IPFW.
Matt Kelty won the 2007 GOP primary with 9,123 votes against one serious opponent and three others who garnered a combined 3 percent of the votes. The winning total is likely to be lower this year with three potential winners.
“Fifty percent plus one (of the vote) is nice to get but far from necessary to win,” Downs said.
Also running are Fred Osheskie, former mayor of a small town in Ohio, and Terence Walker, but they aren’t given a realistic shot at winning. Osheskie spent about $100 of his own money last year buying business cards for the campaign, and Walker did not even file a campaign finance report, meaning he did not raise or spend any money for the race.
While the three main candidates have had some big public announcements, those efforts are far less important than what happens behind the scenes, according to Kevin Knuth, local Democratic Party spokesman. Instead of talking to the media to generate news stories – a strategy more appropriate for a general election – Knuth said candidates should research voting records and target people who are likely to vote.
“If I have a press conference, how many voters will read about it,” he said. “They should bury them in direct mail.”
The first runner
Paula Hughes did not waste time in making her intentions known. The former Allen County councilwoman started her campaign in 2009 by filing paperwork to raise campaign cash.
Since then she has raised and spent more money than any other GOP challenger. Her website has been running for months, and she has solicited support openly at Republican functions.
Sheriff Ken Fries, who is supporting Hughes, ran a similar campaign for sheriff in 2006. He started early and worked tirelessly to fend off numerous GOP challengers before winning office. He said Hughes must work harder than her opponents to connect with not only voters, but potential volunteers who will assist the campaign.
Such volunteers are valuable during and after a campaign.
“You need those people out there continuing to follow you, checking in on you,” he said.
Hughes’ early push, while helpful, did not ward off competition, Downs said, which likely was one of its goals.
“If it was really good, she would have scared off credible contenders,” he said.
Hughes has also been the most aggressive in criticizing her primary opponents, tagging Brown as a perennial candidate and Doden as a carpetbagger.
Fries said Hughes is working daily to meet with small groups of voters, which he said in the end will decide the race.
“It’s going to be who got their personality out there, and then did you get your voters to turn out,” he said.
The Hughes campaign has dubbed itself the front-runner in the race – without providing polling data to support the claim – but being first won’t always equal victory.
The firecracker
City Councilwoman Liz Brown has earned a reputation for speaking her mind. Her campaign has embraced this role; she’s described as a “battler” and “firecracker” on her campaign website.
Brown is in the final year of her first term on the City Council. The position should enhance Brown’s ability to resonate with voters, Downs said.
“She really should know city government better than the others,” he said.
Brown also has wooed some key conservative voters with her style and substance. While she did not win a seat in Congress, Brown impressed many of the precinct voters during the caucus to replace Mark Souder on the November 2010 ballot, according to state Rep. Bob Morris, R-Fort Wayne.
“I believe she’s the best tea party candidate of any of the three running,” said Morris, who supports Brown.
Brown has not held many public campaign events, which Morris said has given her more time to meet and talk with voters. He said he has been surprised by the number of people who approach him to talk about Brown’s candidacy.
Knuth, the Democratic spokesman, said Brown’s campaign focus and conservative support are two of the reasons he sees her as the slight favorite in the primary. He said there is still plenty of time for any of the three candidates to win.
Brown has been the least successful in terms of raising money. She raised slightly less than $25,000, while Doden and Hughes each raised more than $100,000.
Downs said Brown won’t necessarily need to raise the most money to win, but she will have to raise enough. He said a candidate could run an effective primary campaign for about $125,000.
Morris agreed. “She will utilize every dime she has to the best of her ability.”
Brown and Hughes share a potential hurdle: trying to become the first elected female mayor in the city’s history. While it likely won’t affect a large number of voters, there probably are some who don’t want to elect a woman for the city’s top post, Fries said.
“There are those voters that won’t vote for a female because she’s female. It’s horrible,” he said. “For people to still have that attitude surprises me.”
Mr. Sunshine
With a perennial smile on his face, Eric Doden is always happy to talk about his life and his ideas. Just don’t ask him about his opponents and Mayor Henry: He’d rather not go there.
Doden, a political novice who works for a private equity firm, typically responds by saying he wants to focus on his own campaign.
Allen County Recorder John McGauley, a Doden supporter, said Doden is more interested in discussing the potential of the city than criticizing the current mayor or Doden’s primary opponents.
McGauley said Henry is an immensely popular guy, and attacking him will almost assuredly offend some people and cost the county GOP its fourth straight mayoral race.
“There’s a very thin window that would allow us to win this race. It’s not by clawing Tom Henry’s eyes out,” McGauley said. “The way to win this race is by being positive and uplifting and giving people a reason to want to live here.”
Downs, of IPFW, said it makes sense for Doden to start by building his own story with the voters because he hasn’t held elected office. He will eventually need to differentiate himself from the competition, however, Downs said.
Doden has held some public events, mostly focused on business growth, but McGauley said Doden is doing everything necessary behind the scenes to woo voters and support. Doden announced late in the game but was able to raise more than $100,000 for his campaign. Much of that money came from some of the party’s key businessmen, such as Richard Freeland and Don McArdle.
Downs said he does face a disadvantage of not holding a political office. Knuth questioned how much Doden’s business background and campaign platform will resonate with core primary voters. He said Doden’s residency will likely be an issue, as Hughes has already raised it in some of her campaign materials.
Doden lived for years in the city but recently built a house just outside the city limits. When he decided to run for mayor, he bought a small condominium in town while he sells his larger home.
Doden has been upfront about his past, and McGauley does not believe it will be a meaningful factor in the race. He said where Doden built his house is still considered part of the Fort Wayne community if not necessarily in the city limits.
Coming together
Despite holding a demographic advantage in the city, the Republican Party has failed to win the mayor’s seat since Paul Helmke left office in January 2000.
Part of the reason has been bruising primary campaigns that left a divided party unwilling to wholly support the party’s nominee.
Knuth, with the Democrats, said the GOP race will likely turn ugly again, noting Hughes and Brown last week criticized their primary opponents by name.
McGauley said while 2007 had its own circumstances – Kelty was indicted on felony charges – 1999 caused a similar division when Linda Buskirk and Joe Squadrito faced off. He said there is a chance that would happen again. That is why candidates must be sure to stay as positive as possible.
“The negative campaigning is the surest way to hand Tom Henry a second term.”
Allen County GOP Chairman Steve Shine said he doesn’t believe this race is that contentious. He said candidates have the right to differentiate themselves from their opponents but should refrain from personal attacks. Shine declined to discuss the pros and cons of individual candidates.
Shine believes the party will be in a good position to take the mayor’s seat, regardless of who wins the primary.
“We have three of the best candidates running for mayor that I have seen.”
Downs said a three-way race might actually help the party in the fall as voters likely will rank their choices from one to three and would feel more comfortable voting for their second choice in the fall than a Democrat.
