During the early days of the national recession, Indiana officials installed billboards along the state’s border inviting outside businesses and residents to move.

“Come On IN for Lower Taxes, Business and Housing Costs,” the billboards urged.

In the rough economic years that followed, it appears few people took advantage of the offer.

From pre-recession 2005 to 2009 when it technically ended, Indiana’s share of people moving from Kentucky, Ohio and Michigan remained level, while the share relocating from Illinois declined.

But even without significant movement from surrounding states, more people moved to Indiana than moved out during the period, according to U.S. Internal Revenue Service data.

“It’s consistently what we’ve seen in northeast Indiana,” said John Stafford, director of the Community Research Institute at IPFW. “For all of the negative economic data that we’ve seen over the last decade, we don’t see the population decline that you might think would come with that.”

The IRS figures come with some limitations. They count people, not business movement among states. Indiana’s billboard campaign, sponsored by the Indiana Economic Development Corp., primarily was directed at businesses.

In addition, the data include only those who filed income tax returns, which leaves out many poor and elderly residents. Also excluded are the small number of returns filed after late September each year.

Still, the data serve as one of the best gauges of U.S. migration.

The Journal Gazette looked solely at internal, state-to-state moves and not foreign migration. The difference between moves into Indiana and moves out was about 2,000 people during the period.

The years covered – 2005 to 2009 – represent a period of declining mobility. According to a Pew Research Center study citing census figures, 11.9 percent of Americans moved between 2007 and 2008, the lowest level since the late 1940s when the trend was first tracked. Among movers, 44 percent cited job or business opportunities as the reason, according to a 2008 Pew survey.

In northeast Indiana, the largest share of migration is from Ohio. While there was a slight Ohio-to-Indiana increase for the region in 2008, people moving from Michigan and Illinois – states with the second- and third-largest migration to the region – showed declines from 2005 to 2009.

Indiana isn’t alone in trying to attract people and businesses from neighboring states.

The state’s “Come On IN” campaign – playing on the fear of higher taxes in Michigan and Illinois – caught the attention of USA Today in 2009 in a report showcasing states “taking shots at their neighbor’s shortcomings” during the recession.

Las Vegas ran ads in California “warning businesses they can ‘kiss their assets goodbye’ if they stay in the Golden State,” and New Hampshire officials picked up business owners at the Massachusetts border in limousines to urge them to relocate, according to the report.

For Indiana, the largest people pipeline is with neighboring Illinois.

In February, the Tax Foundation, based in Washington, D.C., ranked Illinois 13th, Ohio 18th, Michigan 21st and Indiana 25th in overall tax burden for 2009. Kentucky ranked 30th. Indiana has moved up the list since ranking 42nd a decade ago.

This year, Illinois imposed a 66 percent income tax hike. Soon after, the Indiana Economic Development Corp. began a new ad campaign: “Illinnoyed by Higher Taxes?” A website, www.stateofyourfuture.com/illinnoyed entices Illinois businesses by touting the Tax Foundation’s 2011 Business Tax Climate Index ranking Indiana “first in the Midwest.”

Katelyn Hancock, media relations manager with the corporation, said the three-month campaign, with 15 billboards in the Chicago area and ads on Crain’s chicagobusiness.com, was a success. Sixteen Illinois companies plan to move all or a portion of their operations to Indiana, she said.

As for the older and long-defunct “Come On IN” campaign, Hancock said the agency no longer has details on the number and location of billboards used, or information on the campaign’s effectiveness.

Businesses aside, far more Illinois residents move to the Hoosier State than the other way around. In fact, more people from the Land of Lincoln move to Indiana than to any other state. But the number moving in dropped 16 percent between 2005 and 2009 to 19,500 people. Meanwhile, Hoosiers moving to Illinois increased 17 percent to 15,700.

Put another way, the migration gap favoring Indiana narrowed from about 9,700 people to about 3,800 in those five years.

“The truth is, I think a lot of that is driven by patterns in the Chicago area,” said Matt Kinghorn, an economic analyst and demographer for the Indiana Business Research Center, a part of Indiana University.

While the trend slowed over the five-year period, nearly 44,000 people moved from Illinois’ Cook County to Indiana’s Lake County, more than twice as many as made the reverse move. They resettled in Indiana mostly for reasons related to housing and cost of living, Kinghorn said. Those moving from Indiana to Illinois are largely young adults transplanting to Chicago, he said. Later in life, many will make the reverse move, heading to suburbs in Indiana, Kinghorn added.

Data for Indiana’s three other neighboring states show stable migration in recent years.

Michigan was the only state to lose population last decade, but there’s little evidence Indiana benefited. Of those who left Michigan during the five-year period, migration to Indiana remained flat at 6 percent. The same rate held for Ohio. Similarly, Indiana’s share of people moving from Kentucky was level at 12 percent each year.

Florida and Texas figure prominently as destinations for Indiana residents and those in surrounding states. For each state, the number moving to Florida declined between 2005 and 2009, while those heading to Texas increased.

Kinghorn, the demographer, said the Texas movement has been going on for a couple of decades. About 40 percent to 50 percent of all moves are driven by employment and “I think jobs has a lot to do with it,” he said.

Florida was the most popular destination for Ohio and Michigan movers. But why there was an overall slowdown in movement to the Sunshine State, a traditional destination for many Midwest retirees, is unclear.

“The fact that it’s going down as the recession hit would seem to make sense,” said Stafford, of the Community Research Institute. “People perhaps are more cautious in making that kind of a move when they saw such a depletion of their investment assets going down.”

rshawgo@jg.net