YANGON, Myanmar – Opposition leader Aung San Suu Kyi cautioned Thursday that the democratic reforms started by Myanmar’s nominally civilian government are not “unstoppable” and will succeed only if the powerful military accepts the changes.

The Nobel Peace Prize laureate said she is cautiously optimistic more progress can be made.

Her comments in an interview with The Associated Press were clearly meant to caution the West not to get carried away by the reforms and to remind it that Myanmar’s long-ruling military still wields enormous power despite a veneer of democracy provided by the elections.

“I wouldn’t say that there are many dangers, but I wouldn’t say that it is unstoppable, either. I think there are obstacles, and there are some dangers that we have to look out for,” Suu Kyi said.

“I am concerned about how much support there is in the military for changes. In the end, that’s the most important factor – how far the military are prepared to cooperate with reform principles.”

She spoke as she and her National League for Democracy moved closer to full participation in mainstream electoral politics. The government approved the party’s registration Thursday, and the NLD can now pick candidates to run in by-elections April 1.

The party decided to rejoin electoral politics after the military-backed but elected government took office in March, replacing army rule and tentatively easing years of repression. Its changes included legalizing labor unions, increasing press freedom and opening a dialogue with Suu Kyi.

Critics have characterized the NLD’s decision to rejoin electoral politics as a capitulation after years of resistance to military rule. The party won a 1990 general election but was denied power after the military refused to allow parliament to be seated. Critics fear the NLD’s participation helps the government maintain a veneer of legitimacy for what is actually continued domination of politics by the army.

“I think this year, we shall find out whether we are making progress toward democracy,” Suu Kyi said, adding that benchmarks to consider are “the release of all political prisoners … how the by-elections are conducted … how much more freedom of information is allowed, and whether strong steps are taken to establish the rule of law.”

The release of political prisoners – estimated to number between 600 and 1,700 – is a touchstone for reformers and activists abroad.

Amnesties

Several mass amnesties for convicts have resulted in the release of more than 200 political detainees, but many high-profile prisoners still are serving long terms.

The latest release on Tuesday met with particular disappointment because hopes had been raised by the government’s increased engagement with the NLD and foreign countries, evidenced most notably by the December visit of U.S. Secretary of State Hillary Rodham Clinton.

Suu Kyi agreed that the failure to release more political detainees was “disappointing” but sees the prisoners as the manifestation of a bigger problem, the “lack of rule of law,” which means activists could be put away again for the flimsiest of reasons.

She said she feels there are differences among the authorities on who might actually pose a danger to society, opting for confrontation and causing unrest.

“I have always said it would be best to release everybody at the same time. Keeping some back does not really help. Nobody’s grateful, everybody’s disappointed if they release just a few,” she said.

Civil wars

Suu Kyi said resolving the country’s long-running ethnic conflicts is likely the more important issue over time because “unless there is ethnic harmony, it will be very difficult for us to build up a strong democracy.” The country’s sizable ethnic minorities have for decades struggled for greater autonomy, leading to cycles of brutal counterinsurgency war.

Although the previous military regime concluded cease-fires with many of the groups, the pacts have been precarious and some of the larger guerrilla armies never joined them.

Despite an order by President Thein Sein to cease hostilities, the military is engaged in a bloody struggle against the Kachin minority in the north, often overlooked because of its remote location and the positive developments nationally.

“The Kachin situation is important now because of the hostilities and the fate of the refugees and the local people,” Suu Kyi said. But the conflict is also representative of relations between the government and ethnic nationalities all over the country, a problem that should be resolved by a political settlement, she said.

Suu Kyi is expected to run for a parliamentary seat, a decision her party will formalize later this month. Asked about the risk that she will be co-opted, especially holding a small minority of seats, she said the party will continue to work outside parliament.

She defended her decision to follow the electoral path: “I think it’s very dangerous if so-called democratic politicians think they are above the electoral process.”