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Ben Smith

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New York vs. New England
When: 6:30 p.m. Feb. 5 | Where: Lucas Oil Stadium, Indianapolis | TV: NBC | Radio: 1480 AM
Associated Press
One reason to pick New York to win Super Bowl XLVI on Feb. 5 in Indianapolis is the pressure that Giants defensive ends Jason Pierre-Paul, left, and Justin Tuck can put on New England quarterback Tom Brady.

A Giant prediction

All signs point to a super day for New York

I wouldn’t know a gigabyte if it giga-bit me. And I couldn’t crunch numbers if I dropped Vince Wilfork on them from a very great height.

So you know what you can do with all the computer models that are saying the New England Patriots will beat the New York Giants 55 percent of the time on a Tuesday in April, or 61 percent of the time when the wind blows from the southwest, or 57.5 percent of the time when Bill Belichick smiles.

I say – right now, anyway, on Jan. 29, seven days before Super Bowl XLVI – you go with the Giants down there in Lucas Oil Stadium.

You go with the Giants because they have better mojo and have beaten better teams to get here and have better players, particularly on defense.

You go with the Giants because the Patriots’ keystone offensive player, tight end Rob Gronkowski, is injured, and no one knows how badly. Maybe he’s fine. Maybe his leg’s broken in six places. Only the Patriots know, and getting information from the Patriots is like getting information from the Kremlin.

You go with the Giants because Eli Manning is not Tyler Palko, Vince Young, Rex Grossman, Curtis Painter or Matt Moore. Those are some of the quarterbacks the Patriots faced in their current 10-game winning streak. Others include an under-construction Tim Tebow, a struggling Mark Sanchez and a struggling Joe Flacco – who got un-struggled in a hurry in the AFC title game, dinging the Pats with a 306-yard, two-touchdown day.

You go with the Giants because Eli has days like that all the time now, throwing for eight touchdowns and just one pick in three playoff wins.

You go with the Giants because Osi Umenyiora and Justin Tuck and Jason Pierre-Paul will bring pressure enough to make Tom Brady move in the pocket, and the book on Brady is if you can make him move you at least have a fighting chance to avoid being shredded by him. That’s kind of what happened when the Giants beat the Pats 24-20 on Nov. 6 – a game in which Brady threw for 342 yards and burned the Giants twice for touchdowns but was also intercepted twice.

You go with the Giants because they weren’t healthy then – Brandon Jacobs was pretty much their entire running game – and they still won at Foxborough. Eli threw for 250 yards and two scores. Jacobs ran for 72 yards on 18 carries. Victor Cruz and Mario Manningham combined for a dozen catches.

And the Patriots?

Well, they’ve got Brady going for them and Wes Welker and those two tight ends, Gronkowski and Aaron Hernandez. And of course they’ve still got Belichick.

The theory du jour these days is that Belichick has lost something off his fastball lately, but you couldn’t prove it here. The way he’s re-tooled his offense around Gronkowski and Hernandez has been nothing short of brilliant. You can, in fact, make a compelling case that this has been his best coaching job, getting a team to the Super Bowl that doesn’t really have a running game and leaks touchdowns on defense like a man bailing water with a cheese grater.

Maybe Belichick’s why the computers love the Pats so much. The cerebral appealing to the cerebral or something.

I, on the other hand, am a human being with a skull full of mush. So I go with the Giants.

For now.

Ben Smith has been covering sports in Fort Wayne since 1986. His columns appear four times a week. He can be reached by email at bensmith@jg.net; phone, 461-8736; or fax 461-8648.