MEXICO CITY – Mexico’s drug war has cost 50,000 lives since President Felipe Calderon took office in December 2006, and when voters go to the polls to elect a new leader July 1, that dreadful figure may cost his party the presidency.
Ever-expanding violence and insecurity have left many Mexicans desperate for a leader who can stem the killings and pacify the gangsters. But public frustration has not translated into a substantive policy debate about how to change course, and political analysts say whoever succeeds Calderon will probably continue fighting the cartels in similar fashion – by working closely with the United States and relying heavily on the Mexican military.
“The majority of Mexicans want a change in strategy, but it’s more of a gut feeling that they want something different than a clear sense of what to do,” independent pollster Jorge Buendia said.
Even the candidate projected to benefit most from Calderon’s struggles – Enrique Pena Nieto, nominee of the Institutional Revolutionary Party – has avoided staking out firm positions on security issues.
Pena Nieto has criticized Calderon as not having a “clear” diagnosis before launching a “hasty” offensive against the cartels, and he said he was in favor of withdrawing Mexican troops from city streets – but gradually, with no timetable.
The presidential vote is set for July 1.
The PRI has placed its hopes for a comeback on Pena Nieto, the telegenic former governor of the state of Mexico, the country’s most populous. For months he has held a double-digit lead over potential rivals in polls, but his momentum has been slowed by stumbles and by insinuations from opponents – and Calderon – that his party will go soft on the traffickers.
Andres Manuel Lopez Obrador, the former Mexico City mayor, will run against him as the candidate of the left-leaning Revolutionary Democratic Party. Lopez Obrador lost to Calderon in 2006 by such a narrow margin that he refused to accept the results and spent more than a year calling himself “Mexico’s legitimate president.” He remains popular with many of Mexico’s poor.
