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wrong before
With media mavens in hysterics over Mitt Romney’s “47 percent,” it’s hard not to think about how inaccurate media judgments have been in this election cycle. Here are just a few assertions that proved to be dead wrong:
1. Romneycare would prevent Romney from getting the nomination and/or making an argument against Obamacare.
2. Texas Gov. Rick Perry was a sure thing.
3. The GOP would nominate a tea party favorite.
4. Romney’s $10,000 “bet” in a primary debate would wreck his campaign.
5. Romney adviser Eric Fehrnstrom’s “Etch a Sketch” remark would kill Romney’s chances.
6. Romney’s remark about owning Cadillacs would doom him in Michigan.
7. Romney would have to release more than two years of tax returns.
8. Romney’s remarks on the embassy attacks would wreck his campaign.
9. Romney’s experience at Bain Capital would kill his chances.
10. The Democratic National Convention bounce for President Obama was meaningful.
Published: September 23, 2012 3:00 a.m.

Romney simply saying what nominee can’t say

David Weigel

WASHINGTON – In May 1970, Pat Buchanan offered President Richard Nixon some tips that he’d never stop using. “I strongly endorse symbolic gestures toward groups,” wrote Buchanan, “especially the blacks where symbols count for so much.” To divide the country effectively, Nixon had to pretend that he wasn’t dividing it at all. “The President is President of all the people and while they will never vote for us, we must never let them come to believe we don’t give a damn about them – or that they are outside our province of concern.”

Forty-two years and four months later, an older, more widow’s-peaked Buchanan appeared on Fox News to explain the leaked video of Mitt Romney talking to donors. Had Romney stumbled when he wrote off the “47 percent” of voters too dependent to vote Republican? No, said Buchanan. “Barack Obama is a drug dealer of welfare. He wants permanent dependency, in my judgment, of all these folks.”

As the “47 percent” saga drags on, a sizable group of conservatives are telling Romney to stand by the argument. Romney is standing by it, probably the best of a bunch of bad options.

The big idea, on the right, is that as the ratio of “takers” to “makers” increases, America risks hitting a “tipping point” after which the takers will overwhelm the system. In 2009 and 2010, tea partiers bought bumper stickers and signs that read “Redistribute My Work Ethic, Not My Wealth.” When conservatives tell Romney to come out and say this, they’re revealing what blogger Julian Sanchez has called “epistemic closure.” They know this is true. Their trusted media sources tell them that it’s true. Why not talk about it?

Because 1970 Pat Buchanan told you so, that’s why. It’s fine for someone like Sen. Jim DeMint, R-S.C., to suggest that America will collapse if more people don’t start paying income taxes. But a presidential candidate has to pretend that he’s reaching out to everyone, with hope and no prejudice. Neither Romney nor Obama expects to reach more than 51 or 52 percent of the electorate this year. Both of them want to max out turnout among the demographic groups that favor them. They just can’t admit it.

Here’s what I mean. Way back in November 2011, back when Newt Gingrich was going to be the Republican presidential nominee, the progressive Center for American Progress published a curiously optimistic paper about Barack Obama’s chances. The president’s record was terrible. His 2008 coalition was fading as working-class whites sprinted from Democrats.

In 2012, Obama wouldn’t have to worry so much about those voters, according to the liberal think tank. The new map would bring out more nonwhite votes than ever before, and more college-educated whites who hadn’t joined the tea party. “The underlying demographic composition of the white vote,” wrote researchers Ruy Texiera and John Halpin, “is likely to shift in Obama’s favor in the 2012 election.”

When Tom Edsall read this, he reported a straightforward New York Times analysis. Democrats, he wrote, were giving up “all pretense of trying to win a majority of the white working class.” That appeared on the Drudge Report as “NYT: Obama campaign set to abandon white working class.” It bounced onto Fox News, where Bill Bennett told Sean Hannity that Obama’s team “may avoid the white working class Democrats and put their strategy somewhere else.”

The Obama campaign hadn’t actually said anything about the “strategy.” But it was true. Since that article was published, President Obama has come out in favor of gay marriage, deferred the Keystone XL pipeline, and instructed the Department of Homeland Security to lay off on deportations of under-30 illegal immigrants.

The strategy is obvious but unspoken. The obvious strategy isn’t typically the strategy you’re supposed to talk about.

You just deploy it. As Talking Points Memo’s Brian Beutler points out, Nixon took Buchanan’s advice and managed to make a class argument that divided the Democratic base.

One of his most effective TV ads attacked George McGovern on legislation that would have established “guaranteed income” for all Americans.

“The McGovern bill would make 47 percent of people in the United States eligible for welfare,” warned a narrator. “Forty-seven percent.”

David Weigel is a writer for Slate. – Jennifer Rubin, Washington Post
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