If it isnt torrential downpours, then its too dry. If theres one thing U.S. farmers can count on, its bad weather, and perhaps as a result, many of them dont think humanity is to blame for the long-term shifts in weather patterns known as climate change.
But even though agriculture is a major contributor to global warming, it may not matter whether farmers believe in the environmental problem.
Take, as an example of skepticism, Iowa corn farmer Dave Miller, whose day job is as an economist for the Iowa Farm Bureau. As Miller is happy to explain, its not that farmers in Iowa dont think climate change is happening; its that they think its always been happening and therefore is unlikely to have much to do with whatever us humans get up to down at ground level.
Or, as the National Farm Bureaus spokesman Mace Thornton puts it: Were not convinced that the climate change were seeing is anthropogenic in origin. We dont think the science is there to show that in a convincing way.
The numbers back that up: When Iowa State University sociologists polled nearly 5,000 Corn Belt farmers on climate change, 66 percent believed climate change is occurring, but only 41 percent believed humans bore any part of the blame for global warming.
Its not just the Corn Belt: Farmers across the country remain skeptical about climate change. When asked about it, they tell me about Mount Pinatubo and weird weather in the 1980s, when many of todays most established farmers were getting their starts.
The long-term prediction for the Corn Belt in Iowa says that the weather will get hotter and drier – much like western Kansas is currently. Yet, over the decades of Millers farming career, conditions have been increasingly wet. If I had done what climate alarmists had said to do, I would have done exactly the wrong thing for 20 of the last 25 years, Miller says.
Miller doesnt speak for all farmers, of course, and there are few less monolithic constituencies. This is a group whose holdings range from a small farm in the Northeast following biodynamic principles to big agricultural outfits that count farmed land in square miles, not acres.
A fifth-generation wheat farmer in Oregon, like Kevin McCullough, might say, I think its just normal swings in the weather. But an organic farmer in upstate New York who is the first in recent family history to work the land would say, There is a scientific consensus that there is a change of climate even in light of the fluctuations that naturally occur.
The latter is my brother, Tim Biello, and part of why he got into farming in the first place was to do something hands-on about climate change. He wanted to farm with less fossil fuel and fertilizers by working with horses and to use locally available resources to provide food for his neighbors.
Tim is not a random sample, of course. But big farmers certainly arent skeptical about all science, particularly the kind of science that makes them money by improving yields.
Last years drought was in many places as deep as it was in 1933, and yet we didnt see too many stories of blowing dirt storms, like in the dirty 30s, notes former North Dakota farmer Roger Johnson, now head of the National Farmers Union.
But the biggest change delivered by science to farming in the past century is the one my brother is working to reverse: the advent of fossil-fuel-powered machinery and fertilizer wrested from the air by chemistry.
That, along with cutting down forests to make room for farms around the world, makes agriculture the second-largest cause of the greenhouse gas emissions changing the climate. Theres methane from massive meat farms and manure lagoons.
Few would have to change their livelihoods as radically as American farmers if efforts to combat climate change became more serious. Maybe skepticism also flourishes because farmers tend to be more conservative, and denying climate change falls under the same political umbrella as, say, gun ownership.
But even if American farmers dont believe in climate change, there are reasons for them to behave as if they do. The Agriculture Department has begun incorporating climate change into its projections and outreach.
The key to feeding 7 billion people in a post-climate-change world will be diversity of crops, which will help ensure resilience. To take the example of the farm my brother works, a dry year might see a better crop of sweet potatoes while a wet year promotes the growth of cereal crops.
In other words, many American farmers – even those who would question whether climate change is man-made – are already doing exactly what efforts to combat climate change would require: precision agriculture to cut back on fossil fuel use, low or no-till farming, cover crops, biodigesters for animal waste, and the like.
The key to reaching farmers is bringing them practices that improve their farms.
If you can help me deal with weather variability, Miller says, I can probably adapt to climate variability.