OSLO, Norway – In early March, a mysterious ship the size of a large passenger ferry left a Romanian wharf, glided through the narrow strait that separates Europe from Asia and plotted a course toward Scandinavia. After a two-year refitting, the $250 million ship will begin its mission: to snoop on Russia’s activities in the Arctic.
There is a demand from our political leadership to describe what is going on in this region, said Norway’s military intelligence chief, Lt. Gen. Kjell Grandhagen.
As climate change eats away at the sea ice covering the North Pole, Arctic nations – the U.S., Canada, the Nordic countries and Russia – are fishing for secrets in East-West spy games echoing Cold War rivalries. The military dimension remains important, but this time, there’s an economic aspect, too: getting a leg up in the competition for potential oil and gas resources, along with new shipping lanes and fishing waters.
Summer sea ice reached a record low in 2012, and scientific projections suggest it could disappear completely this century. New areas of open water already have allowed more shipping through the Northern Sea Route north of Russia. The melt is also opening a new energy frontier – the Arctic is believed to hold 13 percent of the world’s undiscovered oil and 30 percent of its untapped gas.
The most accessible resources lie within national boundaries and are undisputed. Security analysts say the risk of conflict lies further ahead, if and when the ice melts enough to uncover resources in areas where ownership is unclear. The U.S., Canada, Denmark, Norway and Russia are expected to have overlapping claims.
Critics say the U.S. lags in the race. A panel of retired generals recently found that despite a slew of planning documents, the Coast Guard has only one fully ready icebreaker, and the U.S. Navy has few ice-hardened vessels that can operate in the Arctic, other than nuclear submarines.
The geopolitical situation is ever more nuanced and complex. The risk of maritime events, or even unpredictable flashpoints, endemic to national security is growing, retired Admiral Frank Bowman warned in the report.
Russian President Vladimir Putin has stressed his desire to maintain Russia’s influence in the region and maybe, in some areas, to be ahead of our partners.
In 2007, Russia resumed long-range strategic bomber flights over the Arctic and planted a Russian flag on the seabed beneath the North Pole. More recently, it asserted control over the Northern Sea Route with naval deployments and by reopening a military base on the New Siberian Islands. The first oil supplies were unloaded from an ice-resistant platform in Russia’s Pechora Sea, which Putin described as our first step in developing the Arctic sea shelf.
A National Security Agency document dated April 17, 2013, said the Norwegian Intelligence Service had helped the NSA with access to Russian targets.
Grandhagen, the Norwegian intelligence chief, declined to comment on that report but said it’s no secret that Norway cooperates on intelligence matters with the U.S.
You give something, and you get something back in other areas. And we give information in areas where we have a good competence and good access, Grandhagen said. Asked what that might be, he said: I think our understanding of our neighborhood is an area where we are strong.
Grandhagen said Russia is also modernizing its capabilities to collect intelligence, including in cyberspace. Russia has a significant intelligence apparatus, including various means to monitor activity on our side, he said.