WASHINGTON – Winter is coming ... later. And it's leaving ever earlier.
Across the United States, the year's first freeze has been arriving further and further into the calendar, according to more than a century of measurements from weather stations nationwide.
Scientists say it is yet another sign of the changing climate, and that it has good and bad consequences for the nation. There could be more fruits and vegetables – and also more allergies and pests.
“I'm happy about it,” said Karen Duncan of Streator, Illinois. Her flowers are in bloom because she's had no frost this year yet, just as she had none last year at this time either. On the other hand, she said, just last week it was too hot and buggy to go out – in late October, near Chicago.
The trend of ever-later first freezes appears to have started around 1980, according to an analysis by The Associated Press of data from 700 weather stations across the U.S. going back to 1895 compiled by Ken Kunkel, a meteorologist at the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration's National Centers for Environmental Information.
To look for nationwide trends, Kunkel compared the first freeze from each of the 700 stations with the station's average for the 20th century. Some parts of the country experience earlier or later freezes every year, but on average, freezes are coming later.
The average first freeze over the last 10 years, from 2007 to 2016, is a week later than the average from 1971 to 1980, which is before Kunkel said the trend became noticeable.
This year, about 40 percent of the Lower 48 states have had a freeze as of Oct. 23, compared with 65 percent in a normal year, according to Jeff Masters, meteorology director of the private service Weather Underground.
A shorter freeze season means a longer growing season and less money spent on heat. But it also hurts some plants that require a certain amount of chill, such as Georgia peaches, said Theresa Crimmins, a University of Arizona ecologist. Crimmins is assistant director of the National Phenology Network. Phenology is the study of the seasons and how plants and animals adapt to timing changes.
Pests that attack trees and spread disease aren't being killed off as early as they normally would be, Crimmins said.
In New England, many trees aren't changing colors as vibrantly as they normally do or used to because some take cues for when to turn from temperature, said Boston University biology professor Richard Primack.
In suburban Boston, Primack and his wife are still eating lettuce, tomatoes and green beans from their garden. And they are getting fresh figs off their backyard tree almost daily.
“These fig trees should be asleep,” Primack said.