Senators wary of USDA forecast

The U.S. Department of Agriculture has more confidence in this year's corn harvest than Hoosier farmers do, according to Indiana's senators.

Republican Sens. Todd Young and Mike Braun have written to USDA Secretary Sonny Perdue to question the department's projected corn yields. The USDA predicted Aug. 12 that American farmers would produce 169.5 bushels of corn per acre, an increase from 166 bushels in its July outlook.

“Given the unprecedented rains this spring, which brought flooding and soggy fields across the Midwest, and particularly in the Hoosier state, this latest estimate perplexes many farmers,” Young and Braun wrote in their letter, dated Friday.

They said the department's National Agriculture Statistics Service estimated that only 79% of Indiana's corn crop had been planted by Aug. 12, with 15% planted after mid-June, raising worries about this year's harvest after a shortened growing season.

“Nothing like 2019 has happened in our history before,” Greg Matli, Indiana statistician for the statistics service, said last week at an Indiana State Fair forum on the status of Hoosier crops, according to a report by the Purdue University News Service.

The wet planting season and periods of extreme heat and drought during the growing season have threatened crop yields, state climatologist Beth Hall said at the forum.

The USDA is forecasting 13.9 billion bushels of corn this year nationwide, an increase of 26 million from what was projected in July. It said that “a decline in harvested acres is virtually offset by an increase in yield.”

American farmers produced an estimated 14.4 billion bushels of corn last year, and the average yield was 176.4 bushels per acre. Both figures were down from 2017 estimates.

The USDA said in this month's crop report that among the major corn-producing states, only Missouri is expected to have yields greater than in 2018. Lower yields are forecast in Illinois, Indiana, Iowa, Minnesota, Nebraska, Ohio and South Dakota.

Bob Nielsen, Purdue agronomy professor and extension expert on Indiana corn management, said Monday in an email that USDA reports issued in July and August are “guesstimates” that largely rely on survey responses from farmers “and should always be taken with a grain of salt.” 

Nielsen said USDA estimates in coming months will be more accurate because they will include data from random field visits and harvest reports from farmers.

But this year's corn harvest “could be substantially below trend yield in Indiana” judging by the current condition of crops, Nielsen said.

He said “time will tell how many fields will fail to reach safe, physiological maturity prior to a killing fall freeze. Assuming many farmers switched to earlier maturity hybrids, though, I suspect the number of affected fields will be less than some believe. September and October temperatures will play a huge role in determining the answer to that question.”

In their letter, Young and Braun – the latter a member of the Senate Agriculture, Nutrition and Forestry Committee – asked Perdue how the USDA had accounted for unplanted acreage this year, whether the department considered crop viability in its production estimates and whether Perdue is considering crop reporting changes to account for “serious anomalies” to planted acres in future years.

The senators said they want “to ensure that the agriculture market is operating with the best, most realistic information.”

bfrancisco@jg.net